Gimme that radioactive sushi!

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, 54 countries imposed some sort of restriction on foods grown in the Japanese prefectures of Fukushima, Miyagi, and Ibaraki. In recent news (8 years later), countries like Singapore and Brunei have lifted their restrictions, such that only 21 countries’ restrictions remain. Although these are victories for Japan, Abe’s administration has its eyes set on the grand prize: Hong Kong and mainland China. These countries import one third of Japan’s food exports, so if they, too, lift their restrictions, the economies of the banned prefectures may be saved.

Will this goal come to fruition? Well, Japan and China’s relationship (which has always been a bit strained) is gradually improving. Lately, Xi Jinping lifted a ban on Japanese Niigata-grown rice, so perhaps China sees Japanese food with less disdain than they used to. The long-lasting historical rivalry is unlikely to vanish just because the Chinese want some tasty sushi, but it is a good sign that the two are willing to help each other out economically.

In my opinion, Japanese estimates for the future of their seafood industry seem a bit too optimistic. They had 900 billion yen of foreign exports in 2018, and hope to quintuple that to 5 trillion yen in 2030, based on a general increase in interest in Japanese cuisine. While may be true that more people want to try tempura and udon as of late, I find it hard to imagine that in 11 years, five times as many non-Japanese will eat Japanese cuisine compared to now.

In regards to the Fukushima power plant meltdown, this moment sends a signal to other countries about the ramifications of nuclear disaster. The majority of countries waited around eight years after such a disaster before feeling willing to buy their food again. Although this length of time will vary by the severity of the disaster, anything on the order of “eight years of a depressed economy” is likely to scare other countries into playing it safe. 

After 2011, we saw the international community suddenly become wary of Japan’s competence and nuclear power as a whole, with the The Economist reporting that the IAEA halved its estimates for nuclear power capability in 2035. Finally, eight years later, we’re starting to get a conclusion to this international backlash. Of course, the effects of the Fukushima accident have no conclusion, with certain areas never being safe for humans for thousands of years (I saw a TV show about Japanese robots built to navigate the destroyed power plant). However, this may be as close as we can get to a conclusion.